Michael Oren: Israel's historic Iran moment

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Feb 20, 2026

Michael Oren, historian and former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., offers a concise take on Israel’s pivotal 2023–2025 moment. He discusses sweeping military gains across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. He examines the limits of turning battlefield victories into lasting diplomatic wins. He analyzes the prospects and constraints of strikes on Iran and the future of U.S.-Israel strategic ties.

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ANECDOTE

1978 Tehran Evacuation Memory

Michael Oren narrated a 1978 story about urgent evacuations from Iran amid the Shah's fall.
He described boarding a nearly empty Tehran-bound plane and vivid scenes including caviar and Mossad intrigue.

INSIGHT

Different Rationalities Among Adversaries

Many regional leaders are rational actors, but groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran's supreme leadership often act outside typical deterrence logic.
For these actors, holding arms is identity, so punishment aims to raise prohibitive costs rather than induce disarmament.

ADVICE

Coordinate Day-After Plans With Allies

Israel did publish a detailed 'day after' plan focused on eradicating Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, but it clashed with U.S. preferences.
When planning post-conflict governance, coordinate early with key allies to avoid incompatible political prescriptions.

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Israel has never been stronger. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has steadily rolled back its enemies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. A staunch friend of Israel is in the White House, and he might well launch a second wave of strikes on Israel's archenemy in Tehran.

Or is Israel historically vulnerable? None of the adversaries it has taken on since the Hamas invasion are defeated. US President Donald Trump is an ally, but both the Democratic and Republican parties have influential and growing wings that are hostile to Israel, if not antisemitic.

To make sense of this moment, one needs a grasp of military strategy, Middle East geopolitics, and the workings of the US-Israel relationship.

Michael Oren, Israel's former envoy in Jerusalem and a leading Middle East historian, says that the post-October 7 wars represent "one of the greatest military victories in modern history, perhaps in all history." However, it remains to be seen whether Israel can translate the military victories into permanent strategic and diplomatic gains.

On the potential for a US strike in Iran, Oren stresses the importance of missile defense for the US Navy, as Iran's greatest achievement would be the sinking of an American aircraft carrier. He predicts that after Trump issued clear threats and put his reputation on the line, he is not going to back down and leave a legacy that could be compared to that of Barack Obama.

Looking at the future of the US-Israeli relationship, Oren notes that the US is going through domestic processes that Israel has no control over, but often use Israel to score political points. Given those trends, Israel should diversify its diplomatic relationships, but there will never be a replacement for American support.

Oren firmly supports Israel moving off of US military aid, and transforming its relationship with Washington into one of equal partners working together to develop capabilities.

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.

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