
Saxo Market Call Markets continue to price that Iran War ended yesterday
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Mar 16, 2026 Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo, offers sharp energy and precious metals perspective. He discusses steep crude backwardation and why refined products, not crude, signal real stress. He covers jet fuel and diesel tightness in Asia, Iran-related export risks around the Strait of Hormuz, and why metals face pressure despite supply concerns.
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Market Complacency On Hormuz Disruption
- Markets are pricing the Iran/Hormuz disruption as short-lived despite very steep near-term crude backwardation.
- One-to-six month Brent spread is about $22, signalling strong short-term tightness but rapid price drop thereafter toward mid-2026 levels.
Curve Shows Quick Return To Lower Brent
- Forward curve shows steep recovery to lower prices by December with Brent near $82 reflecting expectation of resumed flows.
- John Hardy notes starting prices were low, so current elevation is only ~15% above prior moving averages.
Refined Products Signal True Energy Strain
- Refinery products, not crude, are where the real shortages show up with jet fuel doubling and fuel oil up ~70%.
- Ole Hansen highlights Asia tightening, diesel and jet fuel strains, and local measures like India turning off fryers due to gas shortages.

