HousingWire Daily Existing home sales rise as mortgage rates stay near 6%
14 snips
Mar 11, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead housing analyst who tracks mortgage rates, inventory, and sales dynamics. He breaks down recent moves in mortgage rates tied to oil and Treasury yields. He explores shipping and supply-chain risks. He explains why existing-home sales surprised analysts and why the market feels more balanced with rates near 6%.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Oil Moves Directly Affect Mortgage Rates
- Oil price swings are driving short-term moves in the 10-year yield and mortgage rates.
- Logan Mohtashami cites Trump's mixed statements about the war as the catalyst that pushed oil down to the low $80s and pulled yields lower.
Structural Limits On Rates Reaching 7 Percent
- Spreads and labor-market conditions limit the likelihood of mortgage rates jumping above 7%.
- Logan notes you need an accelerated labor market and stronger jobs prints to push the 10-year much higher.
Ignore One-Off Pending Sales Swings
- Discount noisy monthly NAR pending-sales swings and focus on multi-source trackers for forward signals.
- Logan recommends using HousingWire's tracker because it anticipated holiday distortions better than the NAR pending-sales series.