Political Risk Outlook: Conflict, Instability and the World to 2030

This special edition of the Political Risk Podcast features Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook report. Anna Gilmour, Head of Global Risk Insight, joins Hugo Brennan, Director of Research, EMEA, to discuss the research, offering a forward-looking assessment of the forces reshaping geopolitics, global markets and insurance portfolios.

The special episode explores why political risk has become structural rather than cyclical, with instability now embedded across developed and emerging markets. Anna outlines the headline findings from Verisk Maplecroft’s extensive risk data and expert analysis, explaining why businesses and insurers must now proactively plan around persistent uncertainty rather than treating shocks as one-off events.

Hugo talks us through the report’s conflict chapter, detailing the sharp expansion of conflict-affected territories since 2021, from high-profile wars to under-reported flashpoints in Nigeria, Pakistan and Colombia. He also examines the rise of hybrid warfare activity across Europe as a key trend for political violence underwriters.

Conversation turns to mounting government instability and the sharp rise in civil unrest risk across Europe, before Anna assesses the geopolitical and commercial implications of the new tariff environment, shifting supply chains and the uneven resilience of key emerging markets.

To conclude, Anna and Hugo guide listeners through the report’s three core scenarios for the world to 2030 – Drift, Fracture, Adaptation – and highlight some signposts that could reveal which path the world is taking. A direct link to Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook report is included below.

https://www.maplecroft.com/resources/outlooks/political-risk-outlook/