The Reasoning Show What we wish we knew about the next 3 years of AI?
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Feb 11, 2026 A lively look ahead at AI’s next three years, covering who will pay for frontier models and the CapEx race behind them. They debate winner-take-all dynamics, rising barriers for startups, and how pricing models like seats, tokens, and outcome billing might evolve. Political and regulatory risks get attention, along with shifts from LLMs to new architectures and the reshaping of jobs and usage patterns.
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Economics Still Don’t Add Up
- The current AI economics feel irrational because massive upfront investments lack clear ROI paths.
- Brian and Aaron emphasize following the money to understand long-term viability.
CapEx Rush Compresses Decades Into Years
- Enormous capex forecasts from chipmakers and cloud providers compress multi‑decade trends into a few years.
- Aaron warns this winner‑take‑all rush is creating huge demand signals that may not be sustainable.
AGI Would Reshape Politics And Regulation
- If AGI arrives, politics and regulation could shift dramatically and unpredictably.
- Brian asks whether regulators can or will effectively control transformative AI capabilities.