CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax Data and policy shaping the early 2026 CRE market
Jan 15, 2026
The discussion explores vital economic data shaping the US commercial real estate landscape for early 2026. Highlights include insights from labor reports indicating stable unemployment but cooling hiring trends. An analysis of GDP forecasts suggests robust growth expectations, while service sector indicators point toward expansion. Delving into housing policy, local initiatives aim to tackle tenant protections, and federal proposals could reshape institutional purchasing of single-family homes. Overall, the trends reflect a complex mix of growth opportunities and emerging risks.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Labor Market Cooling, Not Crashing
- December 2025 jobs data showed hiring slowed dramatically with only 50,000 jobs added, yet the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%.
- Cole Perry argues the labor market is cooling but not breaking, supporting a soft-landing scenario and possible Fed rate cuts in 2026.
Above-Trend GDP Nowcast Supports CRE Demand
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate showed very strong above-trend Q4 2025 growth (about 5.1% annualized) despite mixed monthly data.
- Omar Eltorai notes this robust nowcast supports demand for CRE even as some residential components soften.
Service Sector Expansion A Tailwind For CRE
- Services PMIs from S&P Global and ISM both signaled expansion in December, though with differing momentum.
- Strong services activity bolsters demand across CRE sectors like office, retail, and industrial.