Macro Mondays How High Will Oil Prices Go? | Macro Mondays: March 9, 2026
40 snips
Mar 9, 2026 They dig into the Iran war and how shifting attack patterns change the conflict’s trajectory. They explain why a shipping bottleneck, not supply shortages, is spiking oil prices. They map which countries face strategic reserve strain and the logistical limits of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. They explore market ripple effects from inflation, growth risks and political pressure on rate-cut plans.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Conflict Has Shifted To A Sustained Tempo
- The Iran conflict is likely to be prolonged because the initial surge in attacks has scaled to a sustainable daily tempo.
- Mikkel notes parties adjusted to a cadence they can maintain for weeks or months, killing hopes of a quick resolution.
Moderate Offer Rejected By Revolutionary Guard
- Mikkel recounts how Iran's moderate president Raisi (Peseshian in transcript) tried a conciliatory move to the Gulf but the Revolutionary Guard publicly repudiated him.
- That public rejection eliminated a possible quick off-ramp and strengthened the war faction's control.
Oil Crunch Is A Shipping Bottleneck Not Immediate Shortage
- The supply problem is shipping and routing, not absolute oil production; the Strait of Hormuz closure creates a transport chokepoint.
- Andreas highlights halted Aramco production near Hormuz and limited east-to-west pipeline capacity causing storage bottlenecks.