
All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Ep76 “How Should You Deal with Uncertainty in Today's World?” with Nick Bloom
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Apr 15, 2026 Nick Bloom, Stanford economist who created text-based uncertainty measures like the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. He breaks down how text, market and survey measures differ. He explains why media, politics and AI drive modern uncertainty. He outlines how markets can appear calm and why firms should build flexibility and contingency plans.
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What The VIX Actually Measures
- The VIX captures forward-looking volatility through option prices and reflects market-implied uncertainty about the aggregate stock market.
- Because equity prices claim a long stream of future profits, VIX spikes reveal perceived long-run economic volatility, and options let you measure volatility without worrying about means.
Text Measures Diverged From Markets Since Trump Era
- Text, market, and survey-based uncertainty measures tracked closely for decades but have diverged in recent years, especially under Trump 2 when text measures exploded.
- Newspapers show huge jumps while VIX and surveys remained more average, creating a conundrum about which reflects real uncertainty.
Local Papers Show Less Uncertainty Spike
- Local US newspapers' uncertainty index did not rise as much as national papers, suggesting coverage differences drive part of the divergence.
- National outlets focused on politics and international issues, while local papers emphasize business conditions and stayed calmer.

