The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#66 Josh Hartmann | Q1'26 SFR/BTR Update & Outlook
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Jan 8, 2026 In this engaging discussion, Josh Hartmann, CEO of NexMetro and a trailblazer in build-to-rent development, shares insights on the booming BTR market across Sunbelt states. He explains why Phoenix became the epicenter for BTR projects and outlines his company's evolution, including current innovations in design and amenities. Josh also analyzes the unique demographics of BTR residents, reveals the sector's growth potential, and addresses concerns about overbuilding. Tune in for an enlightening take on the future of single-family rentals!
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SFR Rent Growth Has Slowed Sharply
- SFR rent growth is near a 12-year low at roughly 2% and Burns forecasts ~1.8% for 2026.
- Parsons attributes softness primarily to rising supply including for-sale inventory converting to rentals.
Wage Growth Is Improving Affordability
- Wage growth has outpaced rent growth for ~36 months, improving affordability.
- Parsons highlights wages up 4.1% vs SFR rent growth at ~2.1% as a medium-term demand tailwind.
NextMetro Grew From Tucson Prototypes
- Josh Hartmann joined early BTR efforts after discovering a Tucson prototype and partners raised capital.
- NextMetro evolved from pilot projects into a scaled developer after proving the product and winning investor rollovers.