Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief: How the Energy Shock Is Reshaping Investment
Mar 24, 2026
Greg Sharenow, leader of commodity portfolio management at PIMCO with decades in energy trading and investment. He breaks down why this Middle East supply shock is unusually large and what determines its lasting impact. He discusses refinery and infrastructure resilience, how the crisis is shifting investment priorities toward energy security and strategic stockpiles, and the implications for commodities, gas, and clean energy.
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Duration Versus Capacity Loss Determines Impact
- Duration and lost production capacity determine whether price effects are weeks or years.
- Sharenow distinguishes pipeline-like short flow stoppages from multi-year lost capacity at LNG and GTL plants that can take years to replace.
Refineries Often Restart Quickly After Attacks
- Refinery units historically can restart within weeks after attacks, providing some near-term resilience.
- Sharenow references Russia and past refinery disruptions where many units restarted within three weeks, though some took longer.
Rebalance To Commodity Exposure Now
- Investors should reassess commodity and natural resource exposures as hedges against supply-driven inflation and portfolio risk.
- Sharenow says clients are reviewing commodity-linked exposure to offensively rebalance or to hedge ongoing tail risk.