TRIGGERnometry Are We Headed for Civil War? - David Betz
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Jul 20, 2025 
David Betz, a Professor of War in the Modern World at King’s College London, shares insights on the rising risks of civil unrest in Western societies. He discusses the implications of multiculturalism on national identity and social cohesion, emphasizing how factionalism erodes trust in political institutions. Betz warns about the potential for civil war in a low-trust society and explores the dynamics of political unrest fueled by social media. He stresses the importance of dialogue and reform to navigate these turbulent times.
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The Civil War Risk Curve
- Civil war likelihood peaks where a formerly dominant majority fears losing status.
- Such groups still have power to mobilize, risking serious conflict in nations like Britain.
Polar Factionalism Drives Conflict
- Polar factionalism means loyalty to faction consensus overrides individual beliefs.
- This insecurity-driven factionalism escalates social divides toward conflict.
Legitimacy's Role in Governance
- Legitimacy is the 'secret sauce' enabling governments to operate with less coercion.
- Western societies have lost this legitimacy, leading to declining trust and need for harsher control.
