Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 3rd, 2026
Feb 3, 2026
Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior U.S. Economist at The Conference Board, on plunging consumer confidence and what it means for spending. Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, on U.S.-India ties, trade diplomacy and coordinated pressure on Russia. Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered, on shaky BLS jobs data, birth-death adjustments and why the dollar and productivity matter.
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US Data Quality Is Overstated
- Steve Englander says US data has become more fool's gold than the gold standard due to holes in methodology.
- He warns benchmark revisions and a weak January print will reveal measurement flaws.
Cross‑Check BLS With Alternative Data
- Use multiple real-time indicators rather than relying solely on headline BLS series like the birth‑death adjustment.
- Combine alternative data and lagged but reliable series to form a coherent economic view.
Labor Market Is Mediocre, Not Booming
- Englander describes the labor market as mediocre: not collapsing but offering low odds of finding work.
- He emphasizes job availability is limited despite headline stability.