Marketplace Tech Why Bitcoin falls short as a safe haven in geopolitical turmoil
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Mar 12, 2026 
Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, offers market analysis on tech and cryptocurrencies. He contrasts bitcoin with gold and explores why bitcoin fails as a safe haven due to volatility and reputation. He also discusses bitcoin’s fixed supply, unique trading and liquidity traits, and how geopolitical crises and capital flight shape demand.
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Why Bitcoin Fails The Safe Haven Test
- Bitcoin's reputation and volatility stop it from acting like gold as a safe haven.
- Gil Luria explains Bitcoin's history of steep daily moves and associations with crime that undermine perceptions of safety.
Fixed Supply And 24/7 Trading Drive Bitcoin Moves
- Bitcoin's fixed supply and 24/7 tradability make it behave independently of traditional markets.
- Luria notes liquidity and continuous trading as drivers that separate Bitcoin's price dynamics from stocks and bonds.
Conflict Can Boost Local Bitcoin Activity
- Geopolitical conflict can both increase Bitcoin demand in affected countries and push global flows toward assets like gold and crypto.
- Luria highlights Iran's miners and how wealth flight may raise Bitcoin buying and selling activity.