Odd Lots War in Iran Is Redrawing the Map for Natural Gas
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Mar 18, 2026 
Bob Brackett, a Bernstein energy and commodities analyst, breaks down how the Iran war is scrambling global natural gas. He looks at Qatar’s crucial LNG role, why gas has no single world price, and why Asian and poorer buyers get hit first. He also gets into America’s export surge, coal as the fallback fuel, and why metals and fertilizer markets are feeling the squeeze too.
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Golden Pass Flipped From Import Terminal to Export Lifeline
- A former US LNG import terminal is now exporting gas, showing how shale completely reversed America's gas outlook.
- Bob Brackett says Golden Pass in Texas, owned 30% by Exxon and 70% by Qatar, may become Qatar's first revenue source during the outage.
Why LNG Has No Spare Capacity
- LNG cannot ramp quickly in a crisis because export terminals take about four years to build and usually run full once finished.
- Bob Brackett says the feared 2026 to 2027 LNG glut came from projects approved after Russia invaded Ukraine, and this war upended that logic.
US LNG Growth Has Not Broken Cheap Gas Yet
- US LNG exports have surged from roughly 10% to nearly 20% of domestic gas demand, yet Henry Hub still reflects abundant supply.
- Bob Brackett says exports alone did not lift prices because gas producers kept supplying whatever the market wanted near $3.50 per MCF.