Profiles in Strategy Episode 1: Theorists
Nov 1, 2022
Andrew “Dex” Wilson, an ancient Chinese thought scholar; Timothy Hoyt, a counterinsurgency and modern conflict analyst; and John Maurer, an expert in sea power and grand strategy. They contrast Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, and Mao. They debate theory versus practice, moral forces and will, assessments and mirror imaging, and what classic ideas imply for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Episode notes
Concentration At The Decisive Point
- All three theorists agree that balance of forces and concentration at decisive points matter.
- Superiority can be material, moral, or motivational and must be exploited at decisive moments.
Moral Forces Can Outweigh Material Power
- Moral forces (will, cohesion) are foundational and can offset material disadvantages.
- Sun Tzu even treats individual morale (chi) as manipulable to maximize effort.
Conduct Honest Net Assessments
- Do rigorous net assessments: know your strengths, enemy weaknesses, and third-party influences.
- Account for uncertainty and intangibles; Clausewitz warns most facts remain unknown.
