Frontline: The War in Ukraine and Global Security Putin 'worried about his survival' as Russia's plan to take Donetsk collapses
Feb 27, 2026
John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre and former NATO representative in Moscow, gives sharp analysis on Russia and Ukraine. He discusses battlefield balance and the high costs of Russia’s advances. He covers economic adaptation to sanctions and how energy sales blunt pressure. He also explores Putin’s shifting priorities and Ukraine’s strategic messaging.
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Slow Russian Gains At Huge Human Cost
- Russia holds a battlefield advantage but cannot achieve a decisive breakthrough due to manpower limits and declining recruitment quality.
- John Lough cites 2024 gains of ~1% territory with ~400,000 casualties and limited appetite for further mobilization.
Energy Attacks Are Straining Ukraine's Economy
- Russia's winter campaign targeting power infrastructure is degrading Ukraine's economy and civilian resilience.
- Lough notes ~13,000 missiles against energy targets and major industrial producers suspending activity from power outages.
Trump's Posture Could Tilt The Balance Quickly
- US policy under President Trump could rapidly shift Ukraine's prospects by curtailing intelligence and weapons transfers.
- Lough warns Trump's mercurial approach might withdraw targeting support that enables deep strikes into Russia.