The Voice of Insurance Ep283 David Flandro Howden Re: Moving on from Vintage years, but nowhere near the floor
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Jan 8, 2026 David Flandro, Head of Industry Analysis at Howden Re, shares sharp insights into recent declines in reinsurance pricing. He discusses the unusual renewal dynamics and emphasizes that capital supply, rather than demand, is driving lower rates. David explains how changes in geopolitical factors and economic trends affect pricing floors. He also highlights structural growth drivers, like AI and data centers, affecting demand. With a balanced view, he reassures listeners that current rates are healthy—setting a fascinating tone for industry outlooks.
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Supply Drove The 1/1 Price Drop
- Reinsurance pricing fell sharply at the 1/1 renewal because supply surged more than demand.
- Dedicated capital rose above $500bn, shifting the supply curve and driving rates lower.
1/1 Renewal Stood Out For David
- David recalls 1/1 as a renewal that will stick in memory, comparing it to post-Katrina and other landmark renewals.
- He highlights large negative rate moves: c. -14.7% property cat and wider declines across treaty types.
Capital Now Exceeds Premiums
- Howden Re estimates dedicated reinsurance capital exceeded $500 billion for the first time.
- That now compares to roughly $450 billion of reinsurance premiums, meaning capital outstrips premium.
