Future Ready Leadership With Jacob Morgan CFOs Say AI Barely Touched Jobs, College Grads Still Worried, Anthropic Releases Economic Index Report
Mar 24, 2026
Three major reports paint a complex picture of AI and work right now. CFOs report little job impact in 2025 but predict concentrated losses in clerical roles. A productivity paradox shows perceived AI gains without matching revenue. User fluency matters: experienced AI users outperform newcomers. College graduates feel unusually pessimistic about entry-level opportunities and shifting role requirements.
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CFOs Saw No 2025 Job Drop But Expect 2026 Cuts
- AI produced essentially zero measurable employment change in 2025 according to an NBER survey of ~750 CFOs.
- CFOs project ~502,000 AI-related job reductions in 2026 concentrated in clerical and administrative roles, while productivity gains lag revenue now.
Productivity Paradox Mirrors The PC J Curve
- Executives report internal productivity gains from AI that are not yet visible in revenue, creating a productivity paradox similar to the PC era J-curve.
- The paper expects productivity in high-skill services and finance to roughly double in 2026 driven by innovation.
Clerical Roles Shrinking While Technical Roles Rise
- Routine clerical roles (bookkeeping, admin, customer service) are expected to decline over three years while demand for technical roles rises.
- Large firms tend to cut routine workers for efficiency; small firms keep routine staff and add technical hires to grow.