RiskReversal Pod The De-Dollarization Myth with Michael Kao
Feb 20, 2026
Michael Kao, investor and writer known as the Urban Cowboy, blends macro, energy, precious metals, and AI perspectives. He questions de-dollarization narratives and explains why gold charts can mislead. He lays out a deflationary Trump-plus-AI scenario, warns of an AI-driven electricity surge boosting natural gas demand, and prefers gas minerals over E&P equity for steady cash flow.
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De-Dollarization Lacks A Viable Alternative
- True de-dollarization is unlikely because no rival fiat ecosystem matches the dollar plus US Treasury liquidity.
- Shifting reserves from Treasuries to gold would cause austerity and sharply slower global GDP growth.
Gold Charts Can Be Misleading
- Much of the apparent central bank shift into gold is price appreciation, not massive new buying.
- That makes the gold rally partly speculative rather than definitive reserve reallocation.
Productivity Could Reverse Debt Fears
- Trump 2.0 policies plus AI could be deflationary, potentially restoring productivity-driven disinflation like the mid-1990s.
- Higher productivity would materially improve debt-to-GDP trajectories versus conservative CBO assumptions.
