Common Ground Berlin What happens to us now? Part II: How the outcome of the U.S. election affects transatlantic relations and the German government crisis.
Dec 8, 2024
Constance Chucholowski, head of the Berlin chapter of Democrats Abroad, and Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, dive into the potential shifts in U.S.-European relations after the recent election. They analyze how a second Trump term could complicate negotiations over Ukraine and increase trade tensions. The duo also discusses the implications of ambassadorial appointments and European defense strategies against Russian threats, while highlighting challenges for Americans abroad and the broader impacts on democracy and journalistic freedom.
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US Aid to Ukraine Under Trump
- Trump is expected to use aid for Ukraine as leverage in negotiations with Russia and Ukraine.
- If negotiations fail, he might abandon the situation, leaving it to Europeans and cutting Ukrainian aid.
Russian Threat Assessment
- Russia is unlikely to invade further into the EU, even if US aid to Ukraine is cut.
- Russia's invasion has significantly weakened them, but their past unpredictable behavior warrants caution.
Policies Affecting American Expats
- Trump is unlikely to prioritize policies targeting American expats financially.
- Focus remains on enriching himself and potentially restricting voting from abroad.