Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 19: A Turnaround For Tech? With Jim Welsh
20 snips
Feb 25, 2026 Jim Welsh, founder of MacroTides Research and 40+ year market veteran, joins to discuss Nvidia earnings and AI spending dynamics. He breaks down valuation risks, buybacks versus cash flow, dollar and gold technical ranges, and where Treasuries could head. Short, chart-focused takes on market positioning and potential macro triggers.
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Be Ready For A Technical Bounce In Beaten Tech
- Software and AI-exposed sectors have fallen ~35% from last September and matched declines seen in the financial crisis and dot-com unwind.
- Jim Welsh notes IGV hit an important price level, so this severe drop was due for a technical bounce even if structural AI concerns remain.
AI Spending Helps Growth But Returns May Lag
- Hyperscaler AI capex will keep rising but the rate of increase is slowing from ~30% to under 20% this year.
- Welsh warns spending fuels economic impact yet markets may price a longer valley before meaningful returns appear, echoing the internet-era lag.
Valuations Are Not A Sell Signal Without A Trigger
- High valuations alone don't force a market drop; a concrete trigger like recession is required to motivate selling.
- Welsh believes recession odds in the next 6–12 months are very low, so elevated valuations can persist until a material reason to sell appears.