Michael Mackelvie Podcast Untangling a Quarterback - Projecting QB Success and Adjusted Efficiency with Kevin Cole
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Sep 15, 2025 In a deep dive with Kevin Cole, a former Senior Data Scientist at Pro Football Focus and analytics guru behind 'Unexpected Points,' they explore the complexities of quarterback performance. Kevin unpacks situational success and the impact of environment on QBs, using Brock Purdy as a case study. He discusses adjusted QB efficiency rankings and when quarterbacks become overrated. They also address historical shifts in expectations and the strategic value of drafting QBs, shedding light on how context shapes evaluation.
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Evidence Shrinks Uncertainty Over Time
- Bayesian updating narrows a QB's upside and downside as sample size grows, making recency less distortive for established players.
- The model balances career evidence with recent performance to avoid overreacting to short-term swings.
Contextualize Rookie Performance
- Evaluate rookie struggles in context: a short poor stint is less predictive than a full season of bad play.
- Combine adjusted efficiency with film-grade proxies like PFF to identify likely sustainers.
QBs Are Powerful But Perception Skews Value
- Quarterbacks remain undervalued relative to their impact on winning and are not yet overhyped at the position level.
- Individual QBs are often overrated by recency and playoff performance biases.