The Big Picture The Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race? Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings.
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Jan 28, 2026 They unpack strange January box office swings and new release buzz. They debate whether late release dates and distributor strategies sway awards. They argue if Sinners can overtake One Battle After Another for top honors. They run updated Best Picture power rankings and pitch ideas for new awards and viewing party tips.
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Why No Other Choice Missed Oscar Momentum
- Park Chan-wook's No Other Choice underperformed with Oscar voters despite cinephile acclaim and commercial success.
- Factors include mixed critic reception, WGA-related controversy, and Neon’s crowded festival/awards strategy.
Timing Killed Ann Lee's Awards Run
- The Testament of Ann Lee suffered from a late acquisition and a compressed awards calendar that limited its exposure.
- Amanda Seyfried's performance could've gained traction with an earlier, slow-burn campaign and wider early release.
Sinners Could Actually Win
- Sinners' 16 nominations create genuine mathematical paths to Best Picture via preferential voting.
- One Battle After Another still leads but Sinners' breadth across below-the-line and acting categories makes an upset plausible.