The DeFi Report Where do we go from here?
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Feb 11, 2026 They dissect Bitcoin’s sharp drop below fair value and whether recent capitulation was a major buying opportunity. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022 and explain why the selloff accelerated faster. They unpack tangled spot markets with concentrated supply above prior highs. They outline a phased deployment into deep-value targets while keeping dry powder for possible lower lows.
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Fair Value Arrived Much Faster
- This cycle reached fair-value faster than prior cycles, accelerating the bear market near-term.
- Michael Nadeau notes we hit fair-value in ~124 days vs ~218 days in the prior cycle, showing faster downside compression.
Morning Capitulation Prompted First Buy
- Michael describes waking up to a fast-moving sell-off that turned into a capitulation day and triggered TDR's first bear purchase.
- That immediate market deterioration prompted their first fat-pitch allocation into Bitcoin.
Moving Averages Map Bear Phases
- The 50-week and 200-week moving averages act as historical supports and signal phases of acceleration in bear markets.
- Nadeau sees parallels to June 2022 where a retracement to the 50-week preceded acceleration toward the 200-week MA.