The Intelligence from The Economist Party likes it 1959: Cuba in crisis
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Nov 26, 2025 
Zen Smiley, an editor-at-large with deep insights into Cuban society, discusses the pervasive challenges facing Cuba today. He highlights the stark realities of economic collapse, shortages, and the people's increasing reliance on remittances. Smiley also explores the Communist Party's stagnant leadership, the failed 2021 protests, and the crucial role of the informal private sector. Additionally, he delves into the impact of Miami’s hardline politics on U.S. policy toward Cuba and envisions potential paths for rapid political change.
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Private Sector Keeps Cuba Afloat
- Private small and medium businesses legalized in 2021 now employ about a third of the workforce and pay far more than state jobs.
- The Communist Party tolerates but hesitates to fully encourage private enterprise, leaving legal uncertainty for entrepreneurs.
Miami's Divided Cuban Lobby
- In Miami, the Cuban diaspora lobby favors maximum pressure on the regime while a smaller group pushes engagement.
- Remittances in dollars remain vital for many Cubans' survival.
Rapid Recovery If Politics Change
- If Cuba held free multiparty elections, the ruling regime would likely be swept away and investment, especially from Florida, could return.
- Zen Smiley believes Cuba could rapidly become vibrant within five to ten years if political change occurred.