The OPEX Effect A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
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Mar 20, 2026 
Brent Kochuba, options market and volatility strategist at SpotGamma, explains why markets feel calm while hidden volatility builds. He discusses the VIX vs realized volatility gap. He covers how OPEX, market maker hedging, heavy put positioning, shifting hedges, and geopolitical and oil-driven risks can set up sudden moves.
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Quarterly OPEX Is Put Heavy And Index Dominant
- This quarterly OPEX was large and relatively put-heavy across indices and single stocks, shifting market risk from stock-picking to asset allocation.
- Brent points out SPX/ETF delta notional dwarfs single-stock activity, concentrating systemic impact in index hedges.
VIX Expiry Can Create Temporary Vol Suppression Then Snapback
- VIX expiration can mechanically suppress short-term VIX then cause a re-expansion as VIX calls expire worthless and hedgers re-establish exposure.
- Brent points to a recent VIX low set at VIX expiration that immediately reversed higher once calls expired.
Position Around JP Morgan Collar And Use Put Flies
- Watch the JP Morgan collar strike near 6,475–6,500 as a sticky support while it exists and prepare for freer market movement once it expires on 3/31.
- Brent suggests put flies around 6,500 into March and small call spreads for right-tail protection into April/May.