Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Sick Labor Market To Pop Biggest Stock Bubble Ever Seen? | George Gammon
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Sep 21, 2025 George Gammon, a financial educator and macro commentator known for his popular YouTube channels, dives into the current stock market dynamics. He discusses the contrasting signals of a booming equity market versus a weakening labor market, highlighting the K-shaped recovery. George explains the relationship between long-term yields and economic growth, emphasizing the risks of disinflation as labor conditions deteriorate. He offers practical investment strategies focused on asymmetric opportunities like gold and uranium to navigate uncertain times.
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Negative Payrolls Signal Trouble
- Negative payroll prints outside recessions are historically rare and usually due to one-off events.
- Combining labor revisions with yield-curve moves increases the probability of an economic slowdown.
Bank Reserves Aren't Credit's Constraint
- Bank reserves are not the primary driver of credit growth; banks create credit off their own balance sheets.
- Interest rates reflect nominal GDP and risk perceptions more than Fed reserve quantity, Gammon argues.
Yields Track Nominal GDP, Not Just Supply
- The 10-year Treasury tracks nominal GDP closely, implying yields follow growth/inflation expectations.
- Massive supply growth hasn't driven yields higher historically; demand dynamics mattered more.
