Rebel Capitalist News Blowout Payroll Numbers!! But What About The REVISIONS?
Feb 12, 2026
A surprise payroll print sparks a look at why revisions matter and how downward adjustments reshaped recent job counts. The conversation breaks down benchmark and birth‑death model changes that slashed 2025 payroll tallies. Markets and 10‑year yields are tied into the reaction and what the data mix means for growth versus labor signals.
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Headline Beat Masks Real Scale
- Headline nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with +130,000 versus a 55,000 median forecast. George Gammon emphasizes that the sheer magnitude is small relative to population and workforce growth.
Yields Reflect Growth And Inflation Views
- Stronger-than-expected payrolls should push growth and inflation expectations higher, which raises long-term yields. George Gammon uses the 10-year Treasury move as direct evidence of this growth-inflation linkage.
Narratives Distract From Yield Drivers
- Market narratives about deficits or foreign selling often get blamed for yield moves, but Gammon insists they don't drive long-run rates. He argues growth and inflation expectations are the dominant forces.