Daily Politics from the New Statesman Does Trump regret the war in Iran?
Mar 24, 2026
Philips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies and American historian at St Andrews, offers concise expertise on military strategy and leadership. He discusses the dangers of using force without a plan. He compares decision-making styles of powerful leaders. He highlights risks for Taiwan, naval vulnerabilities, drone warfare, and the hard choices between escalation and negotiation.
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Trade Links Don't Stop Leaders From Starting Wars
- Economic interdependence does not reliably prevent war because leaders assume quick, cheap victories.
- O’Brien notes trade didn't stop 1914 or WWII and leaders expect wars to be short so they downplay economic cost.
Leaders Use War To Burnish Personal Legacies
- Legacy and reputation strongly motivate leaders to use force.
- O’Brien links Putin's aims in Ukraine and Trump's interventions to their desire to burnish historical reputations.
Chinese Planning May Favor Blockade Over Invasion
- China watches US and Russian conflicts and may prefer blockades or political pressure over invasion.
- O’Brien suggests PLA planners learn that starting war is easier than controlling outcomes, so they plan non-invasive options for Taiwan.