Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart ALERT: Liquidity Has Peaked & That Means Lower Stock Prices Ahead | Michael Howell
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Jan 8, 2026 
Michael Howell, Founder and CEO of Crossborder Capital, is back with insights on global liquidity cycles and market trends. He predicts that liquidity has peaked, forecasting lower stock prices through 2026. Howell highlights the divergence between a stronger real economy and weakening financial markets, while cautioning investors about rising risks. He discusses asset classes to favor, emphasizing commodities and bonds, and offers advice on navigating the upcoming tough market stretch. Stay tuned for his compelling take on China’s liquidity impacts and strategies for challenging times ahead.
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Liquidity Cycle Length Explained
- Advanced-economy liquidity cycles average ~65 months with typical 30–35 month downswings.
- Howell links this rhythm to debt-refinancing cycles rather than classic business cycles.
Don't Chase Commodity Momentum
- Commodities can still run as liquidity shifts toward the real economy; stay long but avoid chasing momentum.
- Howell suggests riding commodities now and buying monetary hedges on weakness.
Liquidity Cuts Term Premia, Flattens Curve
- Falling liquidity tends to lower term premia and flatten the yield curve, contrary to central-bank narratives.
- Howell expects a yield-curve inflection lower about nine months after liquidity peaks.