This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Friend or foe? – Do Rubio's words in Munich change anything for Europe?
Feb 19, 2026
Dr. Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains shifts in US‑European relations and the Munich Security Conference mood. She contrasts Marco Rubio's conciliatory tone with prior provocations. They explore Greenland's fallout, rising European defence spending, and the limits of transnational far‑right alliances. Conversation probes whether Europe can build defence strategies independent of the US.
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Transatlantic Trust Has Fractured
- European leaders see a substantial rupture in relations with the US since 2025's Munich and Greenland incidents.
- They now expect the US to act transactionally and sometimes adversarially toward Europe.
Greenland Shifted European Red Lines
- Greenland became a symbolic red line that shifted European thinking about US intentions.
- Europeans now treat US behaviour as potentially imperial and adapt their policies accordingly.
Politeness Doesn't Erase Policy
- Marco Rubio's more diplomatic tone in Munich relieved European leaders but didn't erase underlying concerns.
- Europeans remain wary because J.D. Vance still holds influence and the operational outreach to European right-wingers continues.