World Business Report Is the ceasefire in the Gulf too late to stop food prices rising?
Apr 9, 2026
Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager offering market and investor commentary on energy and commodity shocks. Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN FAO and expert on global food systems. They discuss how Strait of Hormuz disruptions push up fuel and fertiliser costs. They cover risks to planting seasons, potential export curbs after weeks of disruption, and barriers to restarting normal shipping.
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Food Supplies Now Enough But Price Pain Is Delayed
- The FAO currently sees enough food globally but warns price effects come with delay; significant food inflation would arise in the second half of this year and next year if disruption continues.
- Torero warns 60–90 days of closure triggers protective policies and tighter markets that hit vulnerable importers hardest.
Protect Food Flows With Alternatives And Targeted Support
- Torero urges finding alternative routes and sources for inputs and pressing governments not to impose export restrictions.
- He also recommends targeted IMF balance-of-payments support and short-term finance so vulnerable countries can buy fertilizers and keep planting.
Reopening Won't Instantly Restore Shipping Normality
- Even if the strait reopens immediately, Torero says normal flows and insurance costs will take ~three months to stabilise and some damaged capacity could take a year to fix.
- He estimates partial infrastructure loss (e.g., 20%) could delay full recovery into next year.