In Moscow's Shadows In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?
22 snips
Nov 23, 2025 A proposed peace deal for Ukraine emerges as a starting point for negotiations, emphasizing moral realities versus practical outcomes. The discussion reveals how US support might fluctuate and the political motivations behind the deal. Insights from the Decembrist Revolt of 1825 highlight the disconnect between reformist elites and common citizens, drawing parallels to modern Russian politics. The analysis shows that success in movements often hinges on timing and circumstances beyond mere desire.
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Guarantees Over Trust
- Deals rely on enforceable guarantees and penalties, not trust in leaders like Putin.
- The plan includes snap-back sanctions and Article-5-like security measures, but these are only a starting point.
Prioritise Ukrainian Self-Reliance
- Build Ukrainian self-reliance by investing in domestic forces and defense industry capacity.
- Store stocks of ammunition and systems in neighbouring countries for rapid wartime transfer.
Ukraine And Europe Hold The Vote
- The current proposal is a US-Russia framework and still requires Ukraine's consent and broad international buy-in.
- Europe and Ukraine hold real leverage and a Ukrainian veto can kill the plan despite US pressure.
