The Decibel A 2026 forecast for Canadian politics
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Jan 2, 2026 Stephanie Levitz, a senior reporter from The Globe and Mail, dives into the rapidly changing landscape of Canadian politics after a tumultuous 2025. She discusses Justin Trudeau's resignation and Mark Carney's ascent to Liberal leader, dissecting the paths to a potential majority for Carney. Levitz highlights the possibility of Conservative defections, the complexities of inter-provincial pipeline politics, and the diplomatic challenges with the U.S. Each party faces unique hurdles, making the race for 2026 crucial.
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Paths To A One-Seat Majority
- Mark Carney is one seat shy of a majority and can gain it through floor crossing, a snap election, or creative speaker arrangements.
- Each path is politically difficult and depends on willingness of MPs to leap or complex negotiations behind the scenes.
Speaker And Absences Can Tip Votes
- A Liberal speaker and abstentions can give the government functional advantages without a formal majority.
- Ties and absent opposition MPs can let Carney pass measures on a case-by-case basis.
Motivation For Conservative Defections
- Conservatives are the likeliest source of floor crossers because some MPs want to be in government.
- MPs may defect not for ideology but for ability to deliver results to their ridings.