The View From Apollo 2026 Outlook: Resilience Meets Momentum
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Dec 17, 2025 
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, dives into the macroeconomic forces shaping the landscape through 2026. He discusses the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy despite trade tensions and outlines how AI investments, fiscal policies, and lower energy prices may drive a rebound. Slok also warns of potential headwinds like tariffs and student loan repayments, which could strain consumer spending. His insights extend to global perspectives, investor implications, and the unusual mix of stagflationary pressures reminiscent of the 1970s, concluding with a cautiously optimistic outlook.
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Policy And Expensing Could Boost Growth
- Torsten expects a rebound in 2026 driven by fading uncertainty plus new tailwinds like immediate expensing from the tax bill.
- The CBO estimates accelerated depreciation could add nearly one percentage point to GDP next year.
Three Main Near-Term Headwinds
- Key headwinds include tariffs, tighter immigration reducing labor supply, and restarting student loan payments.
- These factors create near-term weakness but are unlikely to trigger a recession according to Torsten.
Student Loan Restart Hits Consumption
- Restarting student loan repayments will lower credit scores and increase delinquencies for many borrowers.
- About 11 million borrowers are over 90 days delinquent, posing a drag on consumption into 2026.