Marketplace Tech U.S. regulators eye rules for prediction markets
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Mar 24, 2026 Megan McCarty Carino, Marketplace reporter who covers markets and regulation. She breaks down how prediction platforms operate across state gambling rules. She explains why regulators view some contracts as futures. She discusses manipulation risks, military-related betting concerns, and what the CFTC might require for market integrity.
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Huge Volume But Commodity Regulation
- Prediction markets handled over $40 billion in bets in 2025 while being regulated as commodities futures, not gambling.
- That regulatory framing lets platforms operate in states that ban gambling and avoid state-level gambling oversight.
Regulatory Gap Compared To Sportsbooks
- Platforms classify wagers as futures contracts overseen by the CFTC, so they bypass many state gambling rules and oversight.
- That gap means prediction markets don't face the geolocation, monitoring, and reporting requirements sportsbooks do.
Jontae Porter Betting Scandal Example
- NBA player Jontae Porter colluded to underperform in games and bettors who coordinated with him won big on DraftKings.
- Sportsbooks flagged the activity using geolocation and integrity monitors, triggering investigations and alerts.