Global Roaming with Geraldine Doogue and Hamish Macdonald Is Trump already past the point of no return in Iran?
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Apr 1, 2026 Neil Quilliam, energy and geopolitics specialist at Chatham House and former senior UK Foreign Office energy advisor. He explains how Iran dug in and seized leverage over key shipping lanes. He assesses the Houthis’ potential to amplify disruption. He outlines Gulf reluctance to intervene and why the conflict may have passed a point of no return.
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Iran Uses Hormuz As Strategic Leverage
- Iran has seized control of the Strait of Hormuz as a powerful asymmetric lever against the US and global markets.
- Neil Quilliam explains Iran is using low-cost attacks to frustrate the US and force Trump toward negotiations by choking shipping routes.
Houthis Can Shut Both Gulf Export Routes
- The Houthis can amplify Iran's impact by targeting Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea facilities, cutting alternative export routes.
- Quilliam notes Saudi exports shifted to Yambu, which Iran already hit, and Houthi strikes there would block exports to Europe and Asia.
Conflict Likely Past Point Of No Return
- The conflict appears past a point of no return with no coherent US strategy visible to outside observers.
- Quilliam argues Trump likely misjudged control and now faces a far more complicated, prolonged fight.