"We’re Going To Have To Pay The Resilience Premium" Featuring Dr. Fiona Murray, MIT

Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Fiona Murray, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Co-Director of the Innovation Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Fiona is an internationally recognized policy expert on innovation ecosystems and the transformation of investments in science and technology into deep-tech startup ventures that address global challenges. In addition to her roles at MIT, where she previously served as an Associate Dean for Innovation, she is Chair of the NATO Innovation Fund and an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She was awarded a Commander of the Order of the British Empire for her services to innovation and entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom. Fiona also serves on the UK Ministry of Defence Innovation Advisory Panel and the European Innovation Council Joint Expert Group and sits on a number of boards. We were thrilled to host Fiona to explore global markets, innovation ecosystems, and the shifting geopolitical landscape shaping technology and capital flows.
 
In our conversation, Fiona shares her perspective on the intersection of geopolitics and innovation and how geopolitical shocks increasingly shape technology development and commercialization. She outlines the post-2016 shift toward framing priority technologies through the lens of national and economic security, and the growing geopolitical constraints facing entrepreneurs. Drawing on discussions at the Munich Security Conference, Fiona highlights Europe’s strong talent base alongside structural constraints, including smaller venture capital pools, fragmented markets, pension fund limitations, and bureaucratic procurement processes. We explore how defense and security startups think about U.S. versus European capital and transatlantic expansion, the growing importance of dual-use investment, and resilience as a business case. Fiona explains NATO’s two-pronged innovation strategy and emphasizes the need for a “resilience premium” to support domestic and allied production. We discuss China’s competitive innovation model, industrial policy lessons for the West, and the need to scale critical technologies to reduce supply chain dependence and rebuild manufacturing capacity across allied markets. Fiona also shares her perspective at MIT, where students are increasingly prioritizing defense, security, and resilience, alongside energy and climate reframed through critical minerals and system resilience, with AI integration across disciplines. We cover AI’s role in lowering experimentation costs through simulation, large-company AI execution pitfalls, drone and autonomy lessons from Ukraine, and how to avoid overspending on AI. We close by asking where she sees innovation over the next decade, which she describes as “innovation at the extremes,” including fusion energy, Arctic navigation and mining, space commercialization, and other frontier environments. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Fiona for sharing her valuable time and insights.
 
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that this week is centered on Tuesday’s State of the Union address and the policy implications that follow. On the bond market front, the 10-year remains steady, with traders’ attention turning to Friday’s PPI report. On the crude oil market front, WTI is trading at ~$66/bbl as markets weigh the potential for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal versus whether the U.S. follows through on its threat of limited military strikes. WTI price could fall to low-$60/bbl if a nuclear deal is reached or rise to $70/bbl on escalation. The DJIA and S&P 500 are both up marginally since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs last Friday. Technology stocks have staged a modest rebound after several weeks of underperformance. Energy has outperformed over the past week but has underperformed since last Friday’s tariff announcement. E&Ps will dominate