Iran: The Latest Trump’s 9 million death gamble: One year since he axed USAID
Feb 11, 2026
Kevin Melton, former USAID official turned CEO of PAC Strategies, brings insider perspective on stability and post-conflict tools. Angeli Achrekar, UNAIDS deputy executive director, speaks on HIV funding and treatment gaps. They discuss the shock of USAID's closure, potential mortality impacts, the US role in global HIV response, and how lost stability capabilities are being remade.
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Global Aid System Shock
- USAID's sudden closure caused a global aid 'heart attack' with projects collapsing and funding halved overnight.
- Paul Newkey warns many lives will be lost and the aid system faces a long recovery to restore growth and stability.
Projected Death Toll From Aid Cuts
- The Lancet projects between about 9 and 22 million additional deaths by 2030 if funding trends continue.
- Paul Newkey calls these projections huge but plausible and stresses each life lost is significant.
Aid As Strategic Investment
- Aid is framed as strategic investment, not charity, that grows markets and human capital over decades.
- Paul Newkey argues pulling aid is short-sighted because past aid generated economic returns for donor countries too.