In the Company of Mavericks

Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling & Why the World's Capital Out of Whack - Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson

12 snips
Feb 26, 2026
Django Davidson, partner and portfolio manager at Hosking Partners who specializes in capital cycle investing, explains why tracking supply beats chasing demand narratives. He contrasts huge AI/data-center spend with underfunded physical supply chains. He highlights mining, energy and capital-intensive sectors as ripe for long-term rotation. He also discusses country-level dislocations and practical portfolio construction.
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ADVICE

Focus On Measurable Supply Not Demand Stories

  • Measure supply not demand because supply decisions are observable and have long lags, making them easier to forecast than storytelling about future demand.
  • Examples include multi-decade timelines to permit and build copper mines, nuclear plants, or smelters where supply is rigid.
INSIGHT

Low Rates Coiled The Capital Cycle Spring

  • Low interest rates over the past decade suppressed creative destruction and elongated capital cycles, storing up energy for a stronger unwind.
  • Davidson says the longer you tighten the spring the more energy is released when mean reversion happens.
INSIGHT

AI Capex Is Rewriting Tech Capital Intensity

  • Massive AI data center capex is turning formerly capital-light tech giants into capital-heavy operators, altering their long-term return on capital dynamics.
  • Davidson contrasts roughly $700bn hyperscaler AI capex versus under 1% S&P weighting for mining, highlighting a tectonic shift of capital.
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