
In the Company of Mavericks Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling & Why the World's Capital Out of Whack - Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson
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Feb 26, 2026 Django Davidson, partner and portfolio manager at Hosking Partners who specializes in capital cycle investing, explains why tracking supply beats chasing demand narratives. He contrasts huge AI/data-center spend with underfunded physical supply chains. He highlights mining, energy and capital-intensive sectors as ripe for long-term rotation. He also discusses country-level dislocations and practical portfolio construction.
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Focus On Measurable Supply Not Demand Stories
- Measure supply not demand because supply decisions are observable and have long lags, making them easier to forecast than storytelling about future demand.
- Examples include multi-decade timelines to permit and build copper mines, nuclear plants, or smelters where supply is rigid.
Low Rates Coiled The Capital Cycle Spring
- Low interest rates over the past decade suppressed creative destruction and elongated capital cycles, storing up energy for a stronger unwind.
- Davidson says the longer you tighten the spring the more energy is released when mean reversion happens.
AI Capex Is Rewriting Tech Capital Intensity
- Massive AI data center capex is turning formerly capital-light tech giants into capital-heavy operators, altering their long-term return on capital dynamics.
- Davidson contrasts roughly $700bn hyperscaler AI capex versus under 1% S&P weighting for mining, highlighting a tectonic shift of capital.







