Daniel Davis Deep Dive Alastair Crooke: IRAN Will NOT Compromise
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Mar 27, 2026 
Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat and intelligence officer turned Middle East analyst. He argues U.S. policymakers misread regional realities. He explains Iran’s strategic aims in the Gulf, the leverage of controlling Hormuz, regional dilemmas for Gulf states, and how escalation risks—from militias to nuclear signaling—could reshape the conflict.
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Hormuz Gives Iran Immediate Leverage
- Iran can impose severe short-term economic pain by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
- Crooke notes 20% of global oil plus critical inputs like sulfuric acid and helium pass there, causing catastrophe if blocked weeks.
Terrain Makes Invasion Extremely Risky
- Amphibious invasion of Hormuz or Iran risks heavy losses due to terrain and Iranian defenses.
- Crooke describes cliffs, mountains, 2,000 km coastline, anti-ship missiles, mini-submarines and manned/surface drones defending the Strait.
Attack Could Trigger Regional War
- Regional escalation likely if US or UAE attacks Iran directly.
- Crooke warns Iraqis, PMUs and Hezbollah are mobilizing and could widen the war into a regional sectarian conflict.