Technovation with Peter High (CIO, CTO, CDO, CXO Interviews) Bubble or Breakthrough? How CIOs Should Think About the AI Tech Boom
Feb 27, 2026
Duncan Davidson, co-founder and GP at Bullpen Capital and serial entrepreneur, shares sharp views from decades of tech cycles. He discusses how core-use adoption separates durable AI from hype. He urges leaders to participate in booms, warns against fragile “wrapper” AI plays, and explores how AI agents could reshape the SaaS model and job tasks.
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Core Use Determines If AI Is A Real Boom
- AI is a true tech boom because it's being used for its core purpose rather than merely hoarded or speculated on.
- Duncan contrasts Bitcoin (not used for microtransactions) with AI, arguing core-use adoption signals durability and real platform shifts.
Participate In Booms But Avoid Hype Chasing
- Don't try to time the top of a tech bubble; participate smartly because missing a boom often means missing transformative value.
- Duncan warns against chasing hype (e.g., viral 'MaltBook') and recommends being selective to avoid overvalued wrapper plays.
Wrappers Are Fragile Investment Bets
- Simple LLM 'wrappers' are fragile and often get commoditized quickly, so they're poor long-term bets.
- Bullpen looks for complex, defensible AI approaches that sustain advantage against many competitors.
