The Red Line 33 - The Geopolitics of Tajikistan
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Dec 27, 2020 Edward Lemon, researcher on Central Asian security; John Heathershaw, professor of authoritarian politics; Peter Leonard, Central Asia journalist. They map Tajikistan’s harsh terrain and wartime roots. Conversation covers Rahmon’s patronal rule and succession risks. They explore remittances, smuggling and heroin routes. The panel weighs Russia’s and China’s competing influence and the limits of outside aid.
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Rahmon Built A Patronal State From A Weak Start
- Emomali Rahmon rose from a collective farm boss to president after the civil war, positioned as a malleable figure by warlords who later consolidated power around him.
- He systematically sidelined opposition after 1997, turning the state into a patronal system where political and business power fuse.
Managed Elections Create Illusory Mandates
- Elections are managed to appear competitive while excluding real opposition; local pressures and cynicism produce overwhelming official results like Rahmon's 92% win.
- Voters often see no meaningful choice and credit Rahmon mainly for war-ending stability rather than prosperity.
State Industry Funds The Elite Through Offshore Schemes
- State assets like TALCO aluminium are used as cash cows via offshore tolling arrangements, funnelling proceeds to elite-controlled offshore entities.
- Evidence shows revenues paid for private luxuries and lobbying, illustrating elite capture of national resources.
