The Big View Why technological progress is so hard to predict
12 snips
Sep 16, 2025 
Carl Benedikt Frey, a leading expert on AI and work from the University of Oxford, discusses the unpredictable nature of technological progress. He examines how historical transformations, like the Industrial Revolution, inform our current understanding of AI. Frey delves into the societal reactions to technological advancements, contrasting optimism with modern anxieties. He highlights the paradox of AI innovation alongside stagnant productivity, and explores the implications for employment as automation reshapes job markets, raising concerns for the future.
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AT&T, The Internet And Institutional Paths
- Carl Frey uses the internet and AT&T breakup as a thought experiment about institutional conditions for adoption.
- He contrasts centralized Soviet planning that funded only state priorities with decentralized US finance that let many trajectories be tried.
Build State Capacity To Scale Innovation
- Invest in state capacity and complementary institutions to scale breakthroughs effectively.
- Build highways, education systems and organizational capacity to translate inventions into mass productivity gains.
Policy Shaped The Software Winners
- Antitrust and institutional flexibility shaped who won the software era, not just technical merit.
- Unbundling IBM and breaking AT&T helped open markets for Microsoft and the commercialization of the internet.
