Daniel Davis Deep Dive IRAN: The NEW Forever War /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Patrik Baab
Mar 30, 2026
Patrik Baab, German journalist and author of On Both Sides of the Front, explains the widening Iran conflict and European fallout. He discusses Western leadership errors, the military constraints of strikes and landings, rising economic pain from oil and shipping disruptions, and the political consequences for Europe including shifts toward the right and weakening transatlantic influence.
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Kashm Island Landing Would Be Suicide
- Patrik Baab argues a US ground landing on Kashm Island would be a suicide mission due to Iranian missiles and drones protecting landing zones.
- He notes Kashm Island's size (200 km by 40 km) and lack of shelter for troops makes amphibious assault extremely vulnerable.
Iran's Hardened Missile Infrastructure Shifts Calculus
- Baab warns Iran has hardened missile infrastructure in granite and underground complexes, making it nearly impossible to neutralize from the air.
- He links this to limited US interceptor stocks and carrier technical issues undermining Western military options.
Economic Attrition Through Shipping Disruptions
- Baab describes a strategic economic campaign where Iran and allied Houthis aim to bleed the West via disrupted shipping and higher transport costs.
- Closing the Red Sea forces tankers around South Africa adding ~8 days and raising insurance and logistics expenses.
