My guest this week is Mark Dow. Mark started his career as an economist with the US Treasury and the IMF before he joined Wall Street. Today, he is the founder of behavourialmacro.com and runs a fund that combines his skillsets as a trader and an economist. In this discussion, we talk about why economists are usually bad investors, how Mark approaches markets, and we cover some provocative ideas - including how Quantitive Easing and Tightening have little effect and why Mark's not worried about US debt. Please enjoy this great conversation with Mark Dow
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes
(00:01:06) Welcome to Making Markets
(00:01:53) Starting the Conversation: Economists as Investors
(00:03:31) Transition from Economist to Trader: A Personal Journey
(00:05:32) Understanding Market Narratives and Trading Patterns
(00:08:09) The Role of the Federal Reserve in Market Narratives
(00:09:26) The Impact of Monetary Policy on Market Dynamics
(00:09:40) The Behavioral, Secular, and Cyclical Factors Influencing Monetary Policy
(00:11:52) The Limitations of the Federal Reserve's Control Over Money Creation
(00:14:40) The Behavioral Conditioning of Interest Rates
(00:16:26) Understanding the Role of Banks in Money Creation
(00:17:16) The Misconceptions about Monetary Policy
(00:17:50) The Mechanics of Quantitative Easing
(00:18:50) The Impact of Quantitative Easing on the Economy
(00:19:55) The Role of Risk Appetite in Lending
(00:21:25) The Effect of Economic Expectations on Yields
(00:22:19) The Role of the Fed in the Financial System
(00:26:53) The Impact of Competitive Pressures on Risk Taking
(00:27:13) Understanding the Financial Instability Hypothesis
(00:31:01) The Role of Demand in Asset Valuation
(00:34:05) Understanding the Market Risk Cycle
(00:34:13) The New Cycle and Its Differences
(00:35:11) Economic Headwinds and Future Predictions
(00:35:41) The Role of Banks and Areas of Concern
(00:36:46) The Impact of Debt and the Financial System
(00:37:15) The Role of Government Debt and Its Implications
(00:37:36) The Stability of Treasuries and the Global Financial System
(00:38:07) The Future of the Dollar and Government Debt
(00:39:14) The Impact of Growth and Productivity on the Economy
(00:40:03) The Risk Cycle and the Role of Institutions
(00:42:06) The Impact of Fiscal Deficit and Modern Monetary Theory
(00:48:55) Understanding Income Inequality and Asset Price Inflation
(00:50:28) The Role of Finance and Technology in Income Inequality
(00:53:34) The Future of the Housing Market
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Making Markets