The President’s Inbox The India-Pakistan Crisis, With Šumit Ganguly
May 20, 2025
Šumit Ganguly, a senior fellow and director of the U.S.-India Program at Stanford's Hoover Institution, dives into the recent military clash between nuclear powers, India and Pakistan. He sheds light on the deadly terrorist attack that sparked the conflict and examines India’s shifting military strategies, moving from restraint to aggression. Ganguly discusses U.S. influence on ceasefire agreements and the role of China in the geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the fragile nature of treaties and the escalating tensions in South Asia.
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Raising the Stakes in Conflict
- India's strike on Pakistani military bases and air defenses near Lahore raised stakes dangerously high.
- This escalation was unprecedented and increased risk of conflict spirals in a nuclear context.
Risk-acceptance and Nuclear Deterrence
- Modi's government is more willing to use force reflecting frustration with past pinprick responses.
- Both sides maintain nuclear deterrents but risks of miscalculation and escalation remain significant.
Blinding Pakistani Air Defenses
- India successfully suppressed Pakistani air defenses in Lahore, posing major risks of escalation.
- Disabling radars blinded Pakistan and increased temptation for tactical nuclear weapon use.