School of War Did the Islamic Revolution Succeed? And Can It Survive? with Ray Takeyh
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Mar 12, 2026 
Ray Takeyh, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and scholar of Iranian history, reflects on living through 1979 and Iran’s diverse pre-revolution society. He discusses how the revolution took hold, contrasts Khomeini and Khamenei, examines dynastic succession to Mojtaba, and explores the regime’s resilience versus conditions that might spark another uprising.
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Revolutions Are Psychological Cascades Not Mass Events
- Takeyh argued revolutions are primarily psychological and sociological phenomena, not just outcomes of objective grievances.
- He cited the Shah's restraint on repression and fragmentation within state institutions as triggers that allowed a small but widespread daily protest presence to cascade into regime collapse.
Iranian Protest Numbers Were Smaller But Widespread
- Takeyh used Shah secret police files to show typical daily protest sizes were 1,000–5,000, not millions, though similar numbers appeared across many cities.
- He concluded the monarchy crumbled from the top and the revolution 'grabbed' power rather than a wholesale mass uprising.
Khamenei Preserved Revolution But Bankrupted It
- Takeyh contrasted Khomeini and Ali Khamenei, saying Khomeini reshaped theology while Khamenei ruled as an austere, determined revolutionary focused on preserving ideological inheritance.
- He argued Khamenei's rule entrenched repression, corruption, and costly foreign adventurism that left Iran economically and politically weakened by his death.
