The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#58 Haendel St. Juste | 5 Takeaways From Q3 '25 Apartment REIT Calls
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Nov 6, 2025 Haendel St. Juste, a seasoned REIT analyst from Mizuho Americas, dives into the intricate dynamics of the apartment REIT market. He discusses the cautious rental landscape, highlighting a gap between renewal and new-lease rents. The conversation also covers the impact of supply trends on 2026 forecasts and the ongoing NAV discounts prompting REIT buybacks. St. Juste evaluates the likelihood of more firms going private amidst these valuation challenges, revealing both short-term hesitancy and long-term investment potentials in the evolving market.
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Sunbelt Supply Pressure Is Easing In Pockets
- Sunbelt new-lease rents remain negative but cuts are moderating as supply pressure eases in select markets.
- Cities like Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas show early stabilization and improving rent trends.
Buybacks Preferred Over Acquisitions Right Now
- Many REITs are executing sizable stock buybacks because public valuations imply cap rates well below private market prices.
- Buybacks offer higher expected returns versus buying stabilized assets at richer private-market caps.
Watch Supply Declines And Job Trends For 2026
- Monitor supply deceleration into 2026 as the key catalyst for renewed rent growth if the job market holds.
- Use spring 2026 leasing and local job trends as early indicators of durable recovery.