GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish The Warsh Fed and The Trade of The Decade
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Feb 11, 2026 
Freya Beamish, TS Lombard economist focused on currency dynamics and global reflation. Dario Perkins, TS Lombard macroeconomist covering labour, productivity and inflation. They debate the US jobs surprise and productivity revisions. They examine why the dollar may fall, how Fed leadership could shift policy, and the bullish rotation into Europe, Japan and emerging markets.
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Early Green Shoots In US Jobs
- The US jobs report shows green shoots with private payrolls and core hiring rising after last year's wobble.
- Dario warns reacceleration could undermine the narrative that AI-driven productivity is solving inflation and slack issues.
Productivity Gains May Be Illusory
- Productivity gains last year were partly a mirage from AI capex and hiring freezes distorting the denominator.
- Freya argues a true reacceleration will expose weaker productivity and push inflationary pressure back up.
Hedge Dollar Risk More Aggressively
- Avoid assuming the dollar will strengthen simply because the US reaccelerates; Fed credibility and productivity matter too.
- Hedge USD exposure more than in prior cycles because depreciation shocks and rising yields can coincide.